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Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that split the country and triggered turmoil, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is equipped.

That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."

Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue

The duo have studied the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.

"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a referendum.

Lack of Informed Dialogue

Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of serious debate, stated the journalist.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the publication, no writer endorses unification or the current situation. They writes two pieces that aim for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and societal figures, past examples and structural examples.

Arguments cover identity markers, taxes, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and stimulate conversation.

"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be valid points on each side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they support unity but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.

"The Irish government should work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.

Probability of Referendum

McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a negligent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid points, he commented. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will eventually be defeated but all factions has possesses valuable insights to gain from the alternative positions."

Request for Wider Debate

Westminster should join the dialogue, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."